What are the Odds that Ebola Makes it to America?

A recent study in PLoS Currents: Outbreaks suggests that the chance of getting at least one imported case of Ebola in the United States by late September could be as high as 18%.

According to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), there were 4,336 confirmed cases of Ebola and 2,218 confirmed deaths in West Africa as of Sept. 7. The international health agency says that controlling the outbreak could take as long as nine months, and the case total could reach 20,000 in that time.

However, U.S. experts say the WHO estimate is conservative. Researchers at several institutions say the case total could reach 20,000 in one month rather than nine.

Researchers at Virginia Tech say that scientists working on a National Institutes of Health-sponsored project called Midas, or Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, estimate that the outbreak will last 12 to 18 months and that the case total will be very high.
[via The Advisory Board Company]

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